Should Joe Paterno stay?

Should he stay or should he go now? That is the question that has dogged Joe Paterno for years.

Losing in Happy Valley happens about as often as a politician following through on campaign promises. JoePa has been the Nittany Lions head coach since 1967 and has suffered five losing seasons. I repeat - five. Obviously, PSU has created and maintained a tradition of winning throughout Paterno's tenure. In the early part of the last decade, Penn State's football team swooned and looked to be fading from prominence. After enduring three consecutive losing seasons (2002-2003 through 2004-2005), those whispers saying it was time for Joe to go became shouts from every corner of the country, not just inside the commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

Joe celebrating his 1986 National Championship atop the shoulders of his players

What happened in 2005? The recruiting class was one of Joe's finest (including top talent Derrick Williams at wide receiver) and the team finished with an 11-1 record. The one loss came against Michigan and featured multiple questionable officiating calls in the final drive, allowing the Wolverines the opportunity to win on the last play of the game. Despite the loss, the Penn State program had rebounded. Paterno's job was safe, especially after earning the AP Coach of the Year award, and his doubters rapidly disappeared. While Paterno hasn't been able to duplicate bringing in the top-notch recruits since 2005, his win-loss record has been terrific - 2006 (9-4), 2007 (9-4), 2008 (11-2), 2009 (11-2). The Nittany Lions may not be in the conversation for the national title, but it can't be ignored that the Lions have returned to as a powerhouse.

The return to prominence included an Orange Bowl overtime victory over Florida State in 2005-2006.

But, now the questions surrounding Paterno's job are reappearing.

The first is obvious - his age. At 83, JoePa is not as sprite and lively as he used to be. His voice has become considerably quieter, both literally and figuratively. He still has an eye for the game (perhaps the coke bottle glasses help), as evidenced by his involvement during practice sessions. According to assistant coaches, Coach Paterno has a notebook and frequently catches mistakes across multiple practice fields. Once he writes something in the dreaded notebook, coaches and players know that this will be worked and re-worked to Joe's satisfaction.

Paterno still stalks the sidelines with his pants rolled up to keep his wife happy.

The second is recruiting. Joe is starting to lose his stranglehold on top Pennsylvania and New Jersey recruits to teams like Pitt and Ohio State. This can also be chalked up to his age and questions regarding Paterno's future. Prospective players don't get the personal visits from Joe Paterno like they do from other head coaches, like Dave Wannstedt and Jim Tressel. JoePa is counting on his assistants to allure college kids to State College with PSU's storied legacy, as opposed to providing the personal touch.

Another issue is the growing sentiment that Paterno doesn't have much impact on gameday. JoePa has always been more of a figurehead coach on the sidelines, allowing the coordinators to handle the playcalling while never wearing a headset to have his finger on the pulse of the game. He has always managed gamedays by 'feel,' but outsiders wonder what value he adds while on the sideline. The game plans are constructed by the Galen Hall (offensive coordinator) and Tom Bradley (defensive coordinator). Paterno has final input on these game plans and makes the traditional gameday decisions (when to go for it on 4th and short, which QB to have in the game, etc). This hasn't changed, and as long as Joe continues to trudge up and down the sidelines with his rolled-up slacks, don't expect anything different.

Why does Joe stay? It's simple - football is all he knows and he still has a passion for it. He's been a coach at Penn State for 61 seasons (44 as the head coach, 17 as assistant) and coached 530 games. Most folks think that Paterno is motivated to obtain 400 victories (only three away from that milestone). Personally, I think additional motivation might be surpassing Eddie Robinson (Grambling) for most victories in college football history (408). He's already got the mark for Division 1, but hitting #409 would make him the all-time leader.

What will happen when Joe leaves? I believe that Penn State has had a contingency plan in place for at least a decade for when Paterno decides to hang it up. Tom Bradley has been a defensive assistant for 31 years and would provide consistency to the program if he were the head coach's successor. Penn State University's president could opt to bring in a big name (like Bob Stoops, if he could be lured away from Oklahoma) who could aid in the recruiting process. So, it's not as if Happy Valley would be forgotten on the college football landscape. Anyways, recruits no longer attend based on thinking that Joe Paterno will be their head coach for the next four years.

It is my personal opinion that Joe Paterno should be granted the right to leave Penn State University on his own accord, and not have to endure the ongoing media scrutiny regarding his eventual departure. He has devoted his life to PSU. 36 bowl appearances, 24 bowl wins, 2 national titles, a .751 winning percentage, three Big 10 championships. He is and always will be the face of Penn State football. As such, the twilight of his career should be celebrated, not marred by constant questions like Bobby Bowden had at Florida State. I don't like Bowden, but him being forced out by program boosters was a cruel fate.

If I were JoePa, this offseason, I would announce that 2011-2012 will be final season. This would allow the opportunity for several things:
1. Perhaps that provides extra motivation to his players for an unbelievable season, knowing that it would be JoePa's last.
2. Joe to get more of a football 'fix'
3. To execute a well-prepared handoff to the next coach
4. Joe to become the all-time winningest coach.

The white out - a fairly recent tradition for the bigger games on the schedule at Beaver Stadium.

Imagine the cacophony of the crowd in JoePa's last home game at Beaver Stadium. I think the center of the state might implode with the volume of "WE ARE.....PENN STATE" chants throughout the game. Dare to dream, but what could be a more fitting tribute than a conference or national championship as a farewell? A man that devoted to his university should get a sendoff like that.

The Devils Pay Dearly for Kovalchuk

The NHL has the most entertaining, action-filled game to watch in my opinion, but the NHL front office continues to make mistake after mistake on league policy. The latest is the total mismanagement of the New Jersey Devils' signing of Ilya Kovalchuk. He was the big-ticket item in this year's free agency class. Kovy's numbers speak for themselves - at age 27, he has 338 goals and 304 assists. He could easily surpass 600 goals in his career. Kovalchuk has a devastating shot that will continue to give goalies nightmares for years to come. He made a name for himself in Atlanta by putting up huge numbers in his first eight NHL seasons on a lowly team that hasn't yet won a playoff series in franchise history.

Prior to the 2010 trade deadline, the Thrashers dealt Kovalchuk to the Atlantic division-leading Devils to provide offensive firepower to a defensive-minded team. Atlanta had attempted to re-sign Ilya to a long-term deal prior to the 2009-2010 season; their reported offer was $101 million over 12 years. Kovalchuk turned it down, saying that he had no desire to continue his career in Atlanta when he became a free agent after his contract expired this past spring.

This scoring machine didn't want to stay with the Thrashers' franchise.

The Devils won the division and entered the playoffs as a #2 seed in the Eastern Conference while Kovalchuk provided above average, but not spectacular production (10 goals, 17 assists in 27 games). New Jersey was upset in the first round by the Philadelphia Flyers in five games...although it could hardly be called an upset because Philly defeated the Devils five of six times during the regular season. Their defensive system could not overcome the Flyers, primarily due to their inability to get on the scoreboard. Scoring nine goals in five playoff games isn't exactly what the Devils envisioned when signing the goal-scoring winger. It was another in a recent string of disappointing early-round exits for the Devils.

Fast forward to this summer - the first of July is the opening of free agency period. Due to salary cap considerations, NHL teams must be extremely cautious when opening their wallets to build around their existing roster. Teams are not permitted to exceed the ceiling of $59.4 million spent on rosters. Kovalchuk had not re-signed with the Devils prior to July 1, so he was on the open market. New Jersey was left with the daunting decision on whether to make a long-term commitment to Kovalchuk. While they attempted to hammer out a deal that made Kovalchuk a rich man, they had to figure out a way to stay below the max allowed by the cap. In the meantime, stalwart defenseman, Paul Martin signed with the Penguins. Gritty center Rob Niedermayer also left to play for the Sabres. New Jersey scrambled to pick a few solid defensemen, Anton Volchenkov (with the Senators in '09-'10) and Henrik Tallinder (with the Sabres in '09-'10). These signings left the Devils in a precariously tight position. If they signed Kovalchuk to a fair market offer, their salary cap would be exceeded.

So, as the days grew into weeks, Kovalchuk's pursuers whittled down to two teams - New Jersey and Los Angeles. The Kings made significant strides from one of the league's worst teams in 2009 to a surprise playoff appearance in 2010. So, they made their play for Ilya. The highest offer was reported to be $80 million over 15 years. While that may seem like a lot of money to you and me, Kovy is an NHL superstar and expected a much bigger return. $5.3 million per year was simply not enough. The Kings apparently had the right approach, though, by trying to extend the life of his contract for 15 years to minimize the annual cap hit his future team would suffer. The Kings dropped out of the Ilya sweepstakes and it seemed as if it was only a matter of time before the Devils and Kovalchuk agreed to terms. So, on July 21, it was announced that they had indeed come to terms on a whopper of a deal - $102 million over 17 years. New Jersey would pay the vast majority of his salary ($98.5 million) over the first 12 years of his contract, while Kovalchuk's salary would dip to $550,000 for each of the last four years. This contract would not expire until Ilya was 44 years old!

There are two things to consider when looking at this deal - his actual salary and his salary cap hit each season.

Season	Age	Salary Received	Salary Cap Hit
2010-2011	28	$6,000,000	$6,000,000
2011-2012	29	$6,000,000	$6,000,000
2012-2013	30	$11,500,000	$6,000,000
2013-2014	31	$11,500,000	$6,000,000
2014-2015	32	$11,500,000	$6,000,000
2015-2016	33	$11,500,000	$6,000,000
2016-2017	34	$11,500,000	$6,000,000
2017-2018	35	$10,500,000	$6,000,000
2018-2019	36	$8,500,000	$6,000,000
2019-2020	37	$6,500,000	$6,000,000
2020-2021	38	$3,500,000	$6,000,000
2021-2022	39	$750,000	$6,000,000
2022-2023	40	$550,000	$6,000,000
2023-2024	41	$550,000	$6,000,000
2024-2025	42	$550,000	$6,000,000
2025-2026	43	$550,000	$6,000,000
2026-2027	44	$550,000	$6,000,000

As you can see, Kovalchuk will be racking up the dollars while the Devils will maintain a $6 million per year cap hit. This is where the NHL got a little squeamish. Their intent has been to keep player salaries on a par with the salary cap hit each player has. Recently, there have been multiple deals where players got similar long-term deals to minimize the salary cap impact.

Marian Hossa signed a 12-year deal worth $63.3 million in the summer of '09 to play for the Blackhawks (a $5.275 million cap hit). His deal pays him until age 42, and the last four years of the contract pay him $1 million annually.

Hossa hopscotched his way across elite NHL teams before signing long-term in Chicago and winning a Cup.

Chris Pronger signed a 7-year deal worth $34.45 million to play for the Flyers (a $4.921 million cap hit). His deal pays him until age 42, and the last two years of the contract pay him $525,000 annually.

Pronger was all smiles when awarded a contract that will pay the big man until age 42.

Roberto Luongo signed a 12-year deal worth $64 million to play for the Flyers (a $5.333 million cap hit). His deal pays him until age 43, and the last two years of the contract pay him $1 million annually.

Luongo might be flexible now, but that might not hold true in his 40s.

Up until now, these deals have been approved with no disparaging comments made by the NHL office. But, this time, the NHL decided that the Lou Lamoriello, president and general manager of the Devils, pushed the boundary too far on this one. Their two concerns were paying a player until he turns 44 years old and the dramatic decrease in salary in the final four years of the deal. A special arbiter was brought in to rule on whether the NHL would approve Kovalchuk’s deal, or if it "circumvented the salary cap." When I read that the judge hearing the arbitration case was from New Jersey, I thought it was a slam dunk that this deal would be approved. But, that wasn't the case. The deal was voided on August 9 when the arbitrator agreed with the NHL and Ilya Kovalchuk was once again a free agent. In the NHL's eyes, someone needed to be made an example of, and this case fell into their laps.

Lou Lamoriello, Devils GM, might have to lace 'em up to fill out his roster for the '10-'11 season

Kovalchuk smartly flirted with going home to Russia to play in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) to put pressure on any NHL team to make him a reasonable offer. But, most teams had already spent their money and moved on...except New Jersey. Lou Lamoriello's tenacity is to be commended for continuing to work on a deal that would be favorable in the all-important eyes of the NHL front office. On August 28, New Jersey announced that they had signed Ilya Kovalchuk to a 15 year, $100 million deal. He will still be paid as a 42-year old, but the salary of his final years did not drop off as significantly as the originally nixed deal.

Season	Age	Salary Received	Salary Cap Hit
2010-2011	28	$6,000,000	$6,666,666
2011-2012	29	$6,000,000	$6,666,666
2012-2013	30	$11,000,000	$6,666,666
2013-2014	31	$11,300,000	$6,666,666
2014-2015	32	$11,300,000	$6,666,666
2015-2016	33	$11,600,000	$6,666,666
2016-2017	34	$11,800,000	$6,666,666
2017-2018	35	$10,000,000	$6,666,666
2018-2019	36	$7,000,000	$6,666,666
2019-2020	37	$4,000,000	$6,666,666
2020-2021	38	$1,000,000	$6,666,666
2021-2022	39	$1,000,000	$6,666,666
2022-2023	40	$1,000,000	$6,666,666
2023-2024	41	$3,000,000	$6,666,666
2024-2025	42	$4,000,000	$6,666,666

It's rather ironic that this Devil signed his deal for $6.66 million a year after a tumultuous contract re-work

The deal had to be mulled over for six days before the NHL finally blessed it – 65 days after free agency opened. Ilya Kovalchuk is, as expected, a New Jersey Devil. But, the story doesn't end there. In those days when the second deal was being approved, the NHL actually contemplated reviewing the contracts of Hossa, Luongo, and Pronger to determine their legitimacy. What possible recourse could they have? Would Chicago have to give away its Stanley Cup if Marian Hossa's deal was deemed to have circumvented the salary cap? I don't think so. The issue is that the Devils didn't circumvent anything. They simply used creative bookkeeping to make a contract work. You don't have to be an expert to see it - numbers don't lie. In the initial contract, the Devils were on the hook to pay $102 million in actual salary to Kovalchuk. And, the bulk of it was paid up front! NFL players would give their right arm for a contract like this - front-loaded and guaranteed. If New Jersey wants to assume a $6 million cap hit for five seasons on a player who will age from 39-44, why is that the NHL's problem? That's bad business in my eyes, but not illegal.

Just consider Bobby Bonilla. Bobby who? Yes, the former major league baseball player who played the bulk of his career for the Pirates and Mets. When the Mets released him in 2001, they still owed him $5.9 million in salary. So, what did they do? They decided it would be wiser to defer his salary for ten years and spread their payments out over a 25-year period (2011-2035). So, guess who's on the payroll for the Mets starting next year? 48-year old Bobby Bonilla will start receiving $1.1 million each July until he turns 72 years old. 72 YEARS OLD! In total, he will receive nearly $30 million in his golden years for $5.9 million that he probably would have blown on frivolous possessions. Shrewd move, Bobby. Once again, not illegal...just stupid.

Bobby Bonilla may be the eldest member on the Mets payroll in 2035. My only question is - will he be alive to see it?

Now, in light of Kovalchuk's contract, the NHL has developed new salary cap rules for long-term deals. Hmmm...this reeks of C.Y.A. to me because New Jersey did nothing wrong. Here are the new conditions:

Any long-term contract (more than five years) that extends past a player’s 41st birthday will be valued and accounted for in two ways:

1. The compensation for all seasons that do not include or succeed the player’s 41st birthday will be totaled and divided by the number of those seasons to determine the annual average value. In all subsequent seasons, the team’s cap charge will be the actual compensation paid to the player in either that season or seasons.

2. For any long-term contract that averages more than $5.75 million for the three highest-compensation seasons, the salary cap value for any season in which the player is age 36, 37, 38, 39 and/or 40 shall be a minimum of $1 million.

If your eyes glazed over when reading the conditions, what it boils down to is that the NHL doesn't want to honor a 'retirement' contract by averaging in all contract years. They are protecting franchises from making bad business decisions in bringing unnecessary structure into these retirement contracts. The NHL may as well just step in to tell a team that it shouldn't overpay for a free agent if it is going to govern bad decision-making by general managers.

In the spirit of piling on, the NHL had the gall to fine New Jersey $3 million and will take away a 2011 third round draft pick and an additional first round draft pick by 2014...all for circumventing the salary cap. Gary Bettman - what are you thinking? Are you trying to send a message? I actually find myself feeling bad for the Devils organization at every twist and turn of the Kovalchuk signing. These penalties take the taco, though. If the NHL is interested in "growing" their brand, they may want to look around and see how successful leagues are run.

Gary Bettman is laying down the law...anybody else quaking in their boots?

Now, the Devils have their man. They are currently about $3 million over the cap with two roster spots to fill. So, they will have to trade away some middle-of-the-road (or better) talent and sign guys on the cheap before the puck drops in October. Was it worth it? Only if a Cup run is in their future, which I don't see. Washington has all the talent, Pittsburgh has done it before, and Philadelphia almost did it last year. The beasts in the East no longer include the Devils and they will only sink further as once in a generation goaltender, Martin Brodeur, continues to near his retirement age. Call me crazy, but I think the Islanders might surpass them within a year or two.

How would that Atlanta deal look to you now, Ilya? More money, less years, less headaches, same Cup hoists - none.

2010 NFL Preview

This article breaks down each team and includes a projection of each team's final record. Following the team-by-team analysis, you will see my playoff predictions concluding with my Super Bowl picks.

1. Indianapolis Colts - The core of the team remains intact, and Bob Sanders is back healthy. Gary Brackett's injury may hurt their linebacking corps but pass rushing will be a strength for this team. The young receivers (Collie, Garcon, Gonzalez) supporting Reggie Wayne's consistency alongside Dallas Clark...and tandem RBs - playmakers all over the place. (Regular season record: 15-1)

Beware receivers going across the middle, Bob Sanders is healthy...but for how long?

2. Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers put up sick numbers last year. Imagine another year of development of Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley, with a solidified offensive line. The secondary looked better with Charles Woodson and a few young pups in the preseason, despite Al Harris' injury. (14-2)

Aaron Rodgers will be all smiles if he beats the Vikings at least once this year. The Pack has loftier goals, too.

3. New Orleans Saints - The defending Super Bowl champs have everyone returning, so why #3? Have you seen a defending champ repeat recently? Neither have I. Oh, and Drew Brees is on the cover of the Madden game. Bring on the jinx factor, and I'm not buying a French Quarter repeat celebration. Darren Sharper being out six weeks doesn't help either. (13-3)

Oh Drew...the Big Easy didn't want to see you on this cover!

4. New England Patriots - Tom Brady can still throw all over the field. Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, two young TEs. The problem is, and will continue to be, their defense. Their ability to win high-scoring games will give them a good record, but the running game is horrible and will cost them down the stretch. (13-3)

Eight short months ago, this was the picture. Now healthy, Wes Welker is the key to the Pats' playoff run.

5. Atlanta Falcons - This team is severely flying under the radar. I fully expect them to challenge New Orleans for the division title behind a maturing Matt Ryan. Michael Turner will rebound from an injury-plagued season to provide the balance on offense. Dunta Robinson's name will be remembered this year for his coverage ability. (12-4)

Michael Turner's ability to stay healthy will determine how far this young Falcons team can go.

6. New York Jets - Everyone's favorite to win the Super Bowl. They have every weapon imaginable...oh, except for a proven quarterback, and an every down running back (Shonn Greene can't catch, and LT has aged a ridiculous amount in 2 years). (11-5)

"It's about ****ing time." "Yeah, I know...I see you're still fat."

7. Pittsburgh Steelers - The homer pick...without Big Ben (and his lascivious behavior), they will rely on Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith to anchor the defense, giving the pass-rushing LBs a chance to destroy opposing quarterbacks. Rashard Mendenhall will run for 1500 yards and 12 TDs behind a good run-blocking O-line (that can't pass protect at all). (11-5)

The 'fro is back in town. If Polamalu is 100%, this defense could again be great.

8. San Francisco 49ers - The Niners? A playoff team? Well...look at their division. They could easily go 5-1 against the pathetic NFC west. Frank Gore is the work horse and Patrick Willis will be a monster tackling machine. The Alex Smith / Michael Crabtree connection is the key to how far this team can go. (10-6)

Mike Singletary and co. need to treat Alex Smith as a caretaker to obtain victories.

9. Tennessee Titans - Vince Young wins games, period. The threat of him running will free up Chris Johnson to continue his monster stats from the 2nd half of 2009. The Titans will need to show improvement along the defensive line with recent departures of Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch to keep pressure off the secondary. (10-6)

Chris Johnson was a fantasy stud last year. Can he carry his Titans to a playoff berth? (Not without Vince Young growing up)

10. Minnesota Vikings - They have top of the line talent all over the field - Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, the Williams boys, and some guy who wears #4. Somehow, I think that Favre won't duplicate last year's efforts (33 TD, 7 INT). Sidney Rice's injury will limit the big play capability on offense. (10-6)

You should have kept the mullet, Jared! Hope it doesn't have a Samson / Delilah effect.

11. San Diego Chargers - You're counting on Norv Turner, an arrogant QB (Philip Rivers), a rookie RB, and unproven WRs to win? Forgive me for not being excited, but they are still in the AFC West. Their run defense is terrible, but will still win the division although the gap is closing. (9-7)

The Chargers are pinning an awful lot on their young RB, Ryan Mathews.

12. Dallas Cowboys - The NFC East is brutal, but the Cowboys have the necessary talent to come out on top. The O-line has major question marks based on preseason performance, but look at the weapons on offense - Romo, Jones, Barber, Austin, Witten, Bryant. And, Ware pass rushing with Newman (love the name) providing a shutdown corner presence on the D-side. Scary...but Wade Phillips is the coach. (10-6)

Wade Phillips is America's Team's most prominent cheerleader...but certainly not the best looking!

13. Cincinnati Bengals - The 2009 division winners will be...underwhelming. Did you see how they played against the Jets in the playoffs? Well, Carson Palmer wants to throw the ball more to his weapons, Chad and TO. Problem is...those guys are getting older, not getting open any more. The focus needs to be on controlling the clock with Cedric Benson and letting their top tier defense make plays. Harmony won't be kept, and outbursts from the hotheads will occur as the Bungles go back to mediocrity. (9-7)

Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph are more important to the Bengals than the aging receivers, Chad & TO.

14. Houston Texans - On paper, these guys should be a playoff team. The reason they won't break through is not their passing game (Schaub to Johnson / Jones is great), it's not their running game (Foster and Slaton will be adequate), it's not their defensive front (Mario Williams, Brian Cushing, and DeMeco Ryans are studs)...so what's the problem? Gary Kubiak. He saved his job with a win against the Pats last year, but shouldn't have. Don't tell me this team wouldn't be better off with a tough coach (Cowher or John Fox comes to mind). (9-7)

Brian Cushing will be suspended for the start of 2010. Will his panties be in a wad when he returns or have the steroids (hCg) been flushed from his system?

15. Baltimore Ravens - A Super Bowl contender? No. A great team? Yes. Why won't they make the playoffs then? It's called a defense. Baltimore has a very tough start to their 2010 schedule. Don't be shocked to see them below .500 at the start of November and scrambling for answers. Ray Rice is the real deal, but no Ed Reed and an ageless Ray Lewis may finally look older this year, exposing their horrendous secondary. (8-8)

Ed Reed with a ball in hands...a welcome sight to Ravens fan, maybe by week 7.

16. Miami Dolphins - This team could win the AFC west...only problem is, they're in the AFC east. A disciplined, balanced attack on offense won't be enough because it won't fully exploit Brandon Marshall's talents at WR in favor of gimmicky wildcat formations and short passes. Mike Nolan will design a defensive scheme that will make their front seven very disruptive on opposing playcallers. (8-8)

Ronnie Brown made the wildcat a part of the NFL vocabulary. A more traditional offense is in order with Henne to Marshall being a legitimate threat.

17. Washington Redskins - One ego will keep this team from making the playoffs, and for once, that's not Daniel Snyder. It's Mike Shanahan. His handling of Albert Haynesworth has been ludicrous. Big Al may be fat and happy, but here's a little secret - he already pocketed $32M of the $41M that was guaranteed. You can't undo that, Shanny. The other issue is the aging RBs (Portis, LJ) that coach is convinced can still run - mistake #2. Well, at least you have McNabb...but with no one to throw fastballs to. (8-8)

Dumb and Dumber? True, but how about Rich and Richer.

18. Denver Broncos - Why can't the Broncos break above medicority? Well, they traded away problem children (and top talents) Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall in favor of acquiring a squeaky clean image (Tim Tebow). Knowshon Moreno gets dinged up too easily, and the injury to Elvis Dumervil will put Robert Ayres in the crosshairs as the only good pass-rusher on the team. Oh, and Champ Bailey is getting old. (7-9)

This is the future? Hmmm...bad hair aside, Tim Tebow is a fullback and not a pocket passer (see also Matt Leinart's career path).

19. Oakland Raiders - If Jason Campbell can be a stabilizing force, don't be shocked if the Raiders (yes, the team that Al Davis owns) flirts with .500 this year. There may not be a clear cut #1 RB or #1 WR, but their defense will wreak havoc on opposing QBs, keeping them in more games than you would expect. (7-9)

At least if Jason Campbell is sidelined, trainers won't need to buy purple drank to get JaMarcus Russell ready for the game.

20. Chicago Bears - One of the two most difficult teams to get a handle on (along with Philly). Matt Forte had a sophomore slump last year, will he rebound? Mike Martz may be an offensive genius, but that doesn't necessarily translate into wins. Urlacher will be a shadow of his former self with the injury setbacks he experienced last year. (6-10)

Write your own caption on this one...

21. Kansas City Chiefs - Call it New England west, with Charlie Weis joining the rest of the former Belichick regime. So, why can't the Chiefs contend? Matt Cassel. He is not a starting NFL QB (psst - he wasn't even a starting college QB). They will be able to run the ball with a versatile 1-2 punch of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. But, they still wont be able to shut down anyone with that front 7. The D-backs will step up, but it won't be enough. (6-10)

This is where Matt Cassel belongs - in a warmup outfit...just like his days at USC (behind Palmer and Leinart).

22. NY Giants - It's hard to believe that it's only been 2 1/2 years since this team hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Have times changed or what? Brandon Jacobs looks old, Osi Umenyiora nearly lost his starting job, and Plaxico Burress is still in jail. Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith will be nice receivers for Eli this year and Ahmad Bradshaw will be the work horse on offense. Simply not enough to keep the defense off the field, wearing them out and making the G-men very average. (6-10)

Brandon Jacobs is screaming for more playing time, but he doesn't deserve it.

23. Philadelphia Eagles - The cornerstones of the Eagles perennial playoff runs are gone - no more McNabb or Westbrook. Hello, Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy. I expect big things from these guys...just not this year. Kolb won't be on the same page with deep threat DeSean Jackson yet. They've got some nice players on defense (Brandon Graham) that need time to develop. Give it a year and they'll be back. (6-10)

Kevin Kolb may suffer growing pains in '10, but it will be worth it next season.

24. Seattle Seahawks - The slimeball that left USC just before his program went south is once again an NFL coach. Pete Carroll will take Matt Hasselbeck, Justin Forsett, and Mike Williams as his offensive weapons, casting aside TJ Housmandzadeh. Anyone inspired by those names? Me neither. Their defense has...(crickets chirping)...never mind. Bright spot - their division is awful. (6-10)

Pop quiz - do you know this man? I did...in 2006. Mike Williams is creeping back into our consciousness thanks to Slick Petey.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Two years ago, they blew up everything by letting Jon Gruden and the nucleus of aging players go their separate ways. This is year 2 in the recovery plan with Josh Freeman and a pair of untested WRs to strike fear in the defense. Yeah...I'm not on board. (6-10)

Josh Freeman's preseason thumb injury didn't help the maturation of Tampa's young wideouts

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26. Detroit Lions - Don't be surprised if this team looks significantly better this year, despite expected woes on the offensive line. The skill positions haven't been this good for the Lions in years (Stafford, Best, Johnson), and the defensive line (Avril, Vanden Bosch) may cover up the weaknesses in the secondary. (5-11)

Calvin "Megatron" Johnson is a freak of nature. Matthew Stafford should be able to find him a few times this year.

27. St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford has looked great in the preseason against vanilla defenses. The #1 pick has all the tools and he'll need them with this receiving corps. Fortunately, Steven Jackson will take a little heat off the young QB's arm, but it's still year one. This year, it's put up or shut up time for Chris Long and James Laurinaitis. Both guys possess all the skills needed at their D positions, but haven't become household names until this year. A team on the rise. (5-11)

The future is now...just don't get hurt behind that suspect O-line, Sam.

28. Jacksonville - This is the year that tough guy, Jack Del Rio, loses his job. He's a respectable guy, but when you only have one true weapon (Jones-Drew) on offense (no, the other hyphenated guy isn't a stud - Mike Sims-Walker) and nothing of note on the defensive side of the ball, it will be remarkable for the Jags to win more than 4 games. (4-12)

Jack - you might need this suit for your endeavors next year...and not on an NFL sideline.

29. Carolina - All the optimists are pointing to a solid running game and the 2009 record with Matt Moore at the helm (4-1). But, the Panthers are in a very challenging division with limited playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. The loss of Julius Peppers will be profound until Greg Hardy comes of age. Steve Smith continues to be the only bright spot at WR in Charlotte. (3-13)

John Fox can't bear to watch...neither can the rest of Panther nation.

30. Buffalo - There is one ray of hope on this team - CJ Spiller. He will be impressive, but it will be tough with 8 or 9 guys in the box to defend him. Chan Gailey has his hands full with Trent Edwards to Lee Evans being the only viable passing option on the team...yikes. Paul Posluzny and Jairus Byrd are solid players, but not game-changers on defense. Living in western NY, I feel your frustration, Bills fans. Jake Locker, anyone? (3-13)

C.J. Spiller looked awfully good in the preseason. Now all you need is a QB, WR, O-line, D-line, and then some.

31. Cleveland - Mike Holmgren may be a great coach, but Eric Mangini's still in that role (somehow)...and their drafts haven't yielded enough star power to make significant improvement on either side of the ball. Josh Cribbs and Jerome Harrison provide glimmers of hope, but the season-ending injury to rookie RB Montario Hardesty has to disappoint Browns fans. (3-13)

Here's the best QB on the team. Problem is, Josh Cribbs is a WR / RB / KR.

32. Arizona - What a dramatic drop-off from a two-time division winner? That's what happens when you lose a sharp Kurt Warner and replace him with Matt Leinart...scratch that, Derek Anderson. Ouch. The losses will continue Coach Whisenhunt's hairline moving backward. Larry Fitzgerald is begging for a time travel machine to get back to 2008. (3-13)

Larry Fitzgerald's massive hands wish he had a real QB to get him the ball.

Wild Card Round

Pittsburgh 23, Tennessee 7

NY Jets 20, San Diego 10

Atlanta 28, Dallas 10

Minnesota 34, San Francisco 17

Divisional Round

New England 33, Pittsburgh 23

Indianapolis 24, NY Jets 10

Atlanta 23, New Orleans 21

Green Bay 35, Minnesota 21

Favre retires after losing at Lambeau? Fat chance.

Conference Championship

Indianapolis 37, New England 34

Green Bay 27, Atlanta 20

Super Bowl

Green Bay 28, Indianapolis 24